Disentangling Climate and Socioeconomic Contributions to Water Shortage in the Western US
Date:
Poster: Cornell Biological & Environmental Engineering 16th Annual Research Symposium, Ithaca, NY
Luo, Y., Grogan, D. S., Zuidema, S., Lammers, R. B., Zheng, J., Lisk, M. D., Fisher-Vanden, K., Olmstead, S. M., and Srikrishnan, V. 2025. “Disentangling Climate and Socioeconomic Contributions to Water Shortage in the Western US.” Cornell Biological & Environmental Engineering 16th Annual Research Symposium. (Poster)
Abstract
Water scarcity in the western United States presents an increasingly critical challenge, driven by the dual pressures of climate change and growing socioeconomic demands. This study examines the key factors contributing to historical water shortages by integrating climate variability and human activities. Using the UNH Water Balance Model (WBM), we incorporate natural influences such as temperature and precipitation alongside anthropogenic drivers like crop irrigation and population growth. To estimate unmet water demand—the difference between demand and allocation—we apply both Linear Regression and Random Forest models, utilizing WBM data from 2010 to 2019. Model performance is assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and R². By capturing the interplay of climatic and socioeconomic uncertainties, this analysis provides critical insights into the drivers of water shortages and informs strategies for future water resource management.